The expected 2022 development pattern of the notebook computer business laptop market will show that Lenovo, Dell, HP, Apple, Asus, and Acer, the world’s six leading notebook computer OEMs, account for a total business laptop market share of as high as 94%, which is a double-digit percentage gain compared to a market share of 80.8% in 2021. Shipments of business laptops originating from the six major OEMs in 2022 is estimated to reach 80.29 million units, an increase of 8.2% compared to 74.22 million units in 2021, which is contrary to the YoY decline of 6.7% in the overall global business laptop market from 2021 to 2022.
Upon further observation, the aforementioned development trend is primarily due to a sharp decrease in the supply of small market share business laptops from OEMs such as Samsung, NEC, Huawei, and Xiaomi, while supply from the six major OEMs has increased. Comparing the two, the target market of smaller market share OEMs may be limited to their respective home countries. If market demand for business laptops in their home countries approaches saturation, coupled with limited capacity for expansion and a lack of strategic planning for global market access, it will be difficult to displace the top six OEMs with their targeted global market scope, nor do smaller market share OEMs have the strategic and technical ability to expand production capacity in time to meet the huge demand of the global business laptop market.
Performance of global business laptop market will decline sharply in 2023 and pandemic premiums are expected to reappear in 2024-2025
As the key driving force behind the global notebook computer market, business laptops are expected to reach 85.45 million units in 2022, a YoY decline of approximately 6.7% compared with 91.55 million units in 2021. However, shipments of business laptops will account for 43.8% of total shipments of all laptops (including business, consumer, and Chromebook laptops), setting a record for highest proportion of shipments in the past five years and since the global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. With Chromebook shipments losing momentum, business laptop sales growth has prevented the market from falling off a cliff.
With the end of pandemic-related business laptop demand, business laptop shipments in the global notebook computer market is expected to diminish to 74.94 million units in 2023, and YoY decline will expand to 12.3%. If inflation in the consumer electronics market can be significantly slowed in 2H22 and the 1H23, cyclical “back-to-school” and “holiday season” growth momentum in 2H23 will benefit the notebook computer consumer product market, increasing the proportion of consumer device shipments in the global notebook computer market to 49.4% in 2023, while the proportion of business laptop shipments will recede marginally to 41.6%.
Although growth momentum in the current business laptop market is weak, the market performance of business laptops is still highly anticipated due to the “bulk sale” characteristic of business laptops, the fact that many companies must purchase replacement “Durable Goods” every 2-3 years, and the expectation that business laptops purchased during the severe pandemic of the past two years will be replaced subsequently from 2024 to 2025.