Due to persistent production constraints in 2H22, TrendForce estimates that global car sales will reach 81.1 million units for 2022, showing either a mostly flat growth or small decline from 2021. Regarding 2023, the shortage of automotive semiconductor components will ease in the first half of the year, and carmakers will be ramping up production in order to reduce the pile of backlogged orders. However, the global economic environment is expected to remain challenging, so global car sales for that year are now forecasted to increase marginally by 3.7% YoY to 84.2 million units. On the whole, car production is not expected to return to the pre-pandemic level before 2025.
NEV Sales Will Rise to 14.2 Million Units for 2023
Looking at the entire global electric car market, vehicle sales are projected to grow by 43% YoY to 13.6 million units for 2022. Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) are projected to rise by 55% YoY to 10.1 million units for 2022 and will then climb to 19.4 million units for 2023. NEVs as a category does not include hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) that still have an internal combustion engine. The trend of vehicle electrification continues across many regional markets. However, countries have different policies for supporting electric cars because they vary with respect to the progress made in the development of electric cars and related infrastructure. China and some European countries have already enter the phase where subsidy support for purchasing an electric car are being gradually reduced or eliminated. Conversely, the US and other emerging markets are expanding subsidy support.
Safety Functions Required Under EU’s New General Safety Regulation Will Become Mandatory in 2024 and 2026
To ensure safe operation for new types of vehicles that are entering the European market, the New General Safety Regulation (EU) 2019/2144 finally came into force this July. This regulatory framework mandates that all on-road vehicles will conform to a set of new specification requirements and enhanced safety standards. The application of the rules under the regulatory framework will be implemented over successive phases. Many advanced safety functions will be made mandatory in 2024 and 2026. This, in turn, will help generate the demand for automotive cameras (located inside and outside of a vehicle), sensors (e.g., LiDAR), networking components, and data recording solutions. All in all, the New General Safety Regulation is worth the attention of suppliers for automotive technologies. The rules under this framework also serve as a useful reference for other countries that are developing similar policies and laws.
Commercialization of Autonomous Vehicles Is Growing in Importance
Investments in the development of autonomous vehicles can only be sustained if cases of their commercialization start to appear. Hence, robotaxi companies are searching for feasible ways to commercialize their services and create a viable business model. Chinese robotaxi companies, for example, are enhancing the controllability of the traffic environment, reducing the unit cost of vehicles, and hooking up with ride-hailing platforms. TrendForce believes Mainland China will continue to be the fastest-growing regional market for robotaxi services in 2023.
（Image credit: Tesla Linkedin）