According to TrendForce’s latest research, global NB shipments are forecasted to drop by 5.8% YoY to around 177 million units. However, the downtrend in NB shipments is starting to moderate, and the projected figure for 2023 is expected to represent the lowest point before 2025. Currently, inventory corrections for components and whole devices are taking place in the global supply chain for NBs. Prices are also being cut substantially across sales channels, and PC OEMs have scaled back component procurements. There is a chance that the NB market will return to its usual cyclical pattern and show growth during 2H23, when back-to-school and holiday-related promotions are expected to boost device sales.
However, this scenario will depend on two factors. First, PC OEMs will have been able to effectively get rid of the existing stock of NBs belonging to the older generations during 1H23. Second, global inflation will ease as 2023 progresses. Currently, the IMF forecasts that the rate of global inflation will slide down to 6.5% in 2023, compared with 8.8% in 2023. Such development will help raise the consumer spending related to electronics. All in all, notable inventory corrections and the reduction of inflationary pressure will allow the NB market to leave the gloomy situation of 2022 and get back to upbeat state of quarter-to-quarter shipment growth.
Market Segments for Commercial and Consumer NBs Will Both See Decline in 2023, Chromebooks, Gaming NBs, and Creator NBs Will Become Main Demand Drivers
Looking at the various segments of the NB market, unit shipments and market share are expected to drop for both commercial NBs and consumer NBs. Conversely, Chromebooks will grow in terms of shipments and market share despite various headwinds. In 1H23, mature regional markets such as the US and emerging regional markets such as Indonesia and India will be releasing tenders for Chromebook for educational uses. Turning to gaming NBs, their global shipments are forecasted to increase by 8.3% YoY to 17.45 million units for 2023 thanks to the seasonal demand surge in 2H23. As for creator NBs, the market for them is growing because professional content creators want to purchase a “mobile workstation” in place of a high-end gaming NB for tasks such as building 3D models and processing large amounts of multimedia files. Global shipments of creator NBs are forecasted to rise by 24.9% YoY to around 437,000 units for 2023.
(Note: “NB” stands for notebook or laptop computer.)