TVs


2021-11-22

TV Shipment Expected to Undergo 12.4% YoY Decline for 2H21 Despite Arrival of Traditional Peak Season, Says TrendForce

Quarterly TV shipment for 3Q21 reached 52.51 million units, representing an 8.3% QoQ increase but a 14.7% YoY decrease, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Demand for TVs was constrained during the quarter by the increase in various country’s vaccination rates as well as the rising retail prices of TV sets, resulting in a YoY shipment decline despite the arrival of the peak season. It should be noted that prices of TV panels began to plummet in August, and this price drop enabled Chinese TV brands to both expand sales during the Singles’ Day (November 11) shopping festival and in turn make up for deficits in their yearly sales targets. Global brands, on the other hand, will be unable to capitalize on the price drop of TV panels by reflecting this cost-savings on their TV sets’ retail prices until 1Q22 due to factors such as production, transportation, and inventory adjustments. These brands are therefore having a difficult time increasing their TV shipment for 4Q21. Quarterly TV shipment for 4Q21 is expected to reach 59.13 million units, representing a 12.6% QoQ increase but an 10.3% YoY decrease. TV shipment for 2H21 will therefore likely be among the lowest compared to shipment volumes for second halves of previous years historically.

TrendForce further indicates that TV manufacturers’ shipment performances have been weakening this year as the market approaches the year’s end. Stimulus checks issued in the US resulted in persistently high TV shipment in North America in 1H21, with brands maintaining their procurement of TV panels, thereby driving up the prices of TV panels as a result. As the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually brought under control, and everyday life returns to normalcy in Europe and North America in 2H21, the pandemic-generated upswing in TV sales subsequently lost momentum. Furthermore, while prices of raw materials and transportation/logistics services remained sky-high, manufacturing costs of whole TV sets also underwent a sharp climb and were then transferred to consumers. Taken together, these factors quickly wiped out market demand for TVs. TrendForce therefore expects annual TV shipment for 2021 to reach 210 million units, a 3.2% YoY decline.

With a forecasted annual shipment of 6.8 million units for 2021, OLED TVs have become favored by various brands amidst rising manufacturing costs of TV sets

TV brands face various manufacturing-related challenges this year. Not only have panel costs, which account for the largest share of TV sets’ manufacturing costs, undergone an increase, but port congestions have also led to rising shipping costs and an extended lead time before TV sets can be delivered for retail sale. In addition to an uneven availability of various components, these aforementioned obstacles all exacerbate the risks involved with TV brands’ shipment. In a bid to maximize profits, however, brands have been making a concentrated effort to ensure that the production of OLED TVs remained free from disruptions in an effort to maximize profits.

As brands shift the focus of their sales efforts to OLED TVs, OLED TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 6.8 million units, a 72.8% YoY increase. This growth can primarily be attributed to an increase in OLED TV supply due to the expanded production capacity of LGD’s production line in Guangzhou, as well as the narrowing difference between LCD panel prices and OLED panel prices due to the sharp rise in the former in 1H21. In particular, LGE is set to take leadership position with an over 60% market share and a 91% YoY growth in its OLED TV shipment. Trailing behind in second place is Sony, which has been sourcing OLED panels from LGD. The Japanese company is expected to register a 53% YoY increase in shipment and possess a 20% market share. Panasonic, on the other hand, comfortably took third place with a 7% market share. Notably, Xiaomi and Sharp are the two dark horses with regards to OLED TV shipment this year with explosive YoY growths of 900% and 140%, respectively.

Major brands will concentrate on the high-end and large-sized segments, while smaller brands will continue to steadily develop mainstream products

While demand in the TV market recovers as the pandemic runs its course, TrendForce expects 45% and 55% of the total annual TV shipment for 2022 to take place in 1H22 and 2H22, respectively. TV shipment for 2022 will likely reach 217 million units, a 3.3% YoY increase, as brands are able to aggressively ramp up their TV shipments thanks to not only an undisrupted supply of panels, but also gradually stabilizing prices. For major brands, their focus will be on medium-sized and large-sized products and on products with substantial added values. Hence, the market share of large-sized TVs (including 65-inch and above models) will for the first time ever surpass 20%, with medium-sized (40-inch to 59-inch models) TVs remaining at a 55% market share. Although major brands are gradually exiting the small-sized segment, and smaller brands will have an easier time expanding their presence in emerging markets owing to gradually stabilizing prices, small-sized (39-inch and below models) TVs will see their market share drop by 1.8% next year to 25%. In any case, the primary target markets for major brands and smaller brands will not overlap next year.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

2021-08-24

Semiannual TV Shipment Undergoes 10% YoY Growth to Reach Five-Year High of 98.45 Million Units for 1H21, Says TrendForce

As TV demand increased in North America in 1H21 following the distribution of stimulus packages, TV brands continued to replenish their component inventories during this time, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Notably, brands adopted a rolling schedule for their TV shipment because their manufacturing operations for TV sets were disrupted by a shortage of panels in 2Q21. TV shipment for 1H21 reached 98.45 million units, a 10% YoY increase.

Although supply issues related TV components have become gradually alleviated in 3Q21, TrendForce believes that retail prices of TV sets in 2H21 are unlikely to reach the rock bottom levels previously seen in 1H21 because the massive price hike of TV panels in 1H21 had led to a surge in TV manufacturing costs. In addition, as the market anticipates the possibility of an overall downturn in demand despite the arrival of the traditional peak season, TrendForce has once again revised its forecast of annual TV shipment for 2021 down to 215 million units, a 0.9% YoY decrease.

Chinese and Korean TV brands were major contributors to the growth of TV shipment for 1H21 while shipment of ultra large-sized TVs remained robust

TrendForce’s findings show that, although TV shipment for 1H21 fell short of prior forecasts by 5.8%, shipment from the two largest brands SEC (Samsung Electronics Co) and LGE (LG Electronics) comprised more than 20% of total large-sized TV shipment for the first time, thereby propelling their TV shipments for 1H21 above 20.7 million units for SEC and 14.01 million units for LGE. In particular, SEC’s large-sized (65-inch and above) TV shipment underwent a staggering 25% YoY increase for 1H21. Hence, the two brands’ strategy to eschew profit loss from the surge in panel prices by upgrading their product specs and increasing the shipment of larger-sized products proved to be relatively successful.

Despite nonstop issues with the supply of components required for TV set manufacturing in 1H21, TCL and Hisense were able to lower the manufacturing costs of their TV sets by increasing their shipments and adjusting their product mixes. For 1H21, TCL and Hisense increased their TV shipments by 11.5% and 9.5% YoY to 11.05 million units and 8.94 million units, respectively, with both companies setting records in terms of shipment volumes. In particular, 55-inch (and above) TVs accounted for 36.5% and 40.2%, of the 1H21 TV shipment from TCL and Hisense, respectively, meaning they shipped more large-sized TVs in 2021 than in any previous year. Xiaomi, the only brand among the top five to record a YoY drop in its TV shipment, saw its shipment reach 5.52 million units, a 6.6% YoY decline, despite occupying a larger share of TV shipment in China compared to TCL or Hisense. While Xiaomi struggled with rising manufacturing costs due to the persistent price hike of TV panels, Xiaomi’s decline can primarily be attributed to the fact that it failed to attract consumers despite multiple promotional price cuts in 1H21.

Persistently high prices of TV panels as well as lengthened shipping times in Europe and North America will likely hinder TV sales in 2H21 despite the arrival of the traditional peak season

Issues with TV panel supply are expected to gradually become resolved in 2H21. However, TV brands still need to address ongoing challenges with high panel costs as well as lowered TV demand in Europe and the US now that pandemic-related restrictions are being lifted. From June 2020 to July 2021, prices of 32-inch panels rose by 167%, though retail prices of 32-inch TV sets rose by a mere 30-35%. Similarly, prices of 55-inch panels rose by 120% while retail prices of 55-inch entry-level and mid-range TV sets rose by only 20-25%, with high-end TVs even experiencing a price drop. In other words, promotional price cuts taking place during peak season sales this year are unlikely to be remarkable and result in noticeable sales performances.

Although third quarters have traditionally marked the start of the peak sales season and hence a period of component procurement for TV brands, retail availability of end-products, such as TV sets, was delayed by three to four weeks this year due to port congestions taking place across the globe, which indirectly led to a decline in TV brands’ procurement activities for Europe and North America. Peak season sales, in turn, will likely be relatively muted this year in view of an increase in TV manufacturing costs and lengthened shipping times. Therefore, TrendForce expects TV shipment for 2H21 to reach 117 million units, an 8.5% YoY decrease.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

(Cover image source: Unsplash)

2021-06-30

QLED/OLED TV Shipment Projected to Break Records This Year Thanks to Brands’ Focus on Large-Sized, Mid- to High-End TVs Says TrendForce


Continued price hikes of TV panels, as well as a simultaneous shortage and price hike of semiconductor components required for manufacturing TV sets have forced TV brands in 2021 to reduce the shipment of their mid- and small-sized TVs in favor of the more profitable large-sized, mid- to high-end TVs instead, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. This shift is expected to propel the annual shipment of QLED TV for 2021 to 11.02 million units, a 22.4% YoY increase. On the other hand, OLED TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 7.1 million units, an 80% increase YoY. As such, both product categories are expected to break records in terms of shipment this year.

It should be pointed out that, as increased vaccinations in Europe and the US bring about an imminent easing of border restrictions, TV demand generated by the stay-at-home economy is likely to slow down. In addition, TV panel costs have remained sky-high and shown no signs of downward movement. Hence, TV brands are moving towards larger product sizes and better specifications in order to maximize profits and minimize the financial losses incurred by selling mid- and small-sized TVs, which have relatively low margins. Given the downscaling of these less profitable models, TV brands’ annual shipments will likely suffer a corresponding drop. TrendForce therefore expects total TV shipment this year to reach 220 million units, a 1.4% YoY increase.

Samsung’s Neo QLED series will help propel annual shipment of Mini LED backlight TV to three million units in 2021

There has been a sharp drop in the profitability of mid- to small-sized TVs this year. In response, during the replacement period between old and new models, market leader Samsung Electronics has not only lowered the retail prices of its QLED products to attract consumers, but also released its new Neo QLED lineup, which features Mini LED backlights and resolutions ranging from UHD to 8K. Samsung’s QLED TV shipment is expected to undergo a 17% YoY increase to 9.1 million units this year, the highest annual shipment in history. In particular, Samsung’s lineup includes about 1.5 million Mini LED backlight TVs, mostly with 65-inch and 55-inch displays, and these sizes account for 33% and 30% of the company’s total Mini LED backlight TV shipment, respectively, while the ultra-large, 75-inch model will account for 17%.

TCL, on the other hand, released a relatively affordable 75-inch Mini LED backlight TV in 2020, with a 65-inch model released this year. TCL’s annual shipment of Mini LED backlight TV for 2021 will likely reach 800,000 units. Apart from the aforementioned two brands, Xiaomi and LG are also eager to enter the Mini LED backlight TV market. As such, TrendForce forecasts a total annual Mini LED backlight TV shipment of three million units for 2021.

While brands expand their production lines for OLED TVs, LG and Sony are expected to seize nearly 80% of OLED market share

At the moment, OLED TVs have been attracting consumer attention in the high-end TV market primarily due to their excellent image quality through high color saturation and contrast. As LG Display installs additional OLED capacity via its Gen 8.5 production line in Guangzhou this year, there will likely be a corresponding increase in OLED TV supply as well as a diversification of OLED TV sizes. Also, annual OLED TV shipment is expected to break records once again this year, as brands are willing to expand their OLED TV product lineups because strategic reductions in OLED panel costs have now significantly narrowed the gap between the cost of OLED panels and that of equivalent LCD panels, thereby giving OLED panels a cost advantage that allows TV brands to reap increased profitability. With regards to TV brands, LG Electronics remains the industry leader in terms of OLED TV shipment this year with a market share of more than 50%, while Sony takes second place with a 20% market share. Other Japanese brands (Panasonic, Sharp, etc.) and Chinese brands (Skyworth, Hisense, Xiaomi, etc.) are likewise expected to experience shipment growths going forward.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

2021-01-11

Global TV Shipment Expected to Reach 223 Million Units in 2021, with Ultra-Large-Sized TVs Becoming Latest Focus for TV Brands, Says TrendForce

Thanks to the stay-at-home economy brought about the by the COVID-19 pandemic, TV shipment in North America saw the start of an upturn in late March last year, while demand in the European market also gradually ramped up in 2H20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. On the whole, global TV shipment rebounded from rock-bottom levels in April and peaked in October 2020. Nonetheless, recent shortages in IC products from upstream semiconductor suppliers led TV brands to push back their 4Q20 shipment schedules, resulting in a global TV shipment of 217 million units in 2020, a 0.3% YoY decline.

Looking ahead to 2021, TrendForce is not ruling out the possibility that the Tokyo Olympic Games and the UEFA European Championship, which were originally planned for 2020 but subsequently delayed due to the pandemic, will take place this year instead, despite the unpredictable nature of the pandemic. These sporting events are expected to drive global TV demand to yet another record high. In this light, TrendForce expects global TV shipment to reach 223 million units in 2021, a 2.8% YoY increase.

Survival of tier two and tier three TV brands will be challenged in light of IC shortage and surging TV panel prices

Whereas the supply of TV panels dwindled in 2020 owing to the reduction in Korean panel manufacturers’ production capacities and the slowdown in new Chinese panel manufacturers’ mass production ramp-up, demand skyrocketed thanks to extended stay-at-home times induced by anti-pandemic measures. Given such imbalanced supply and demand, prices of 40-inch to 55-inch TV panels rose by more than 60% within a mere six months, while prices of 32-inch panels more than doubled, in turn posing a great challenge for white-label TV manufacturers, which had traditionally survived in the market by offering low-priced TVs.

TrendForce further indicates that the tightening supply of TV panels throughout 2020 and faster-than-expected demand recovery in 2H20 both indirectly exacerbated the existing shortage of wafer capacities for IC products. Therefore, upstream suppliers, including foundries and panel makers, have become increasingly selective of their clients, and tier one TV brands have an advantage in securing wafer capacities from foundries due to their massive order volume. Case in point, year 2020 marked the first time when the combined market shares of the top five TV brands surpassed 60%. For tier two, tier three, and white-label manufacturers, the strained supply of panels and IC products will make it harder than ever for them to compete against tier one brands in the market.

Shipment of 65-inch (and above) TVs will likely reach 30% YoY growth in 2021

As the prices of TV panels underwent MoM increases every month throughout 2H20, the profitability of 32-inch to 55-inch TV units, which were the market mainstream, gradually plummeted as well. In response to declining profits from these low-priced products, TV brands began to redirect their procurement activities towards larger-sized panels. In particular, this period saw a 23.4% and 47.8% growth in 65-inch (and above) and 70-inch (and above) TV panel shipments, respectively. Under the assumption that panel prices will not undergo a substantial decline in 2021, TV brands will likely accelerate their product strategies for ultra-large-sized TVs. Therefore, TrendForce forecasts a potential 30% YoY growth in the shipment of 65-inch (and above) TVs this year.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforce.com

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