According to TrendForce investigations, global TV shipments will reach 47.26 million units in 1Q22, down 20% QoQ. Driven primarily by the Russian-Ukrainian war, prices of raw materials such as crude oil and natural gas have risen, while the recent breakout of the Omicron strain of the pandemic in China has incited repeated no warning attempts at enacting dynamic zero-COVID, which has hindered the flow of logistics, hiked freight rates, and taken as a whole, exacerbated existing global inflation woes. Consumers with limited disposable income have started to cut back on non-essentials with TV sales bearing the brunt. Looking at the three major TV sales regions of North America, Europe, and China in 1Q22, high inflation in Europe and the United States has led to a sharp 20% drop in demand. In China, due the festering pandemic, numerous cities have been locked down, while unemployment is spiking, logistics are impeded, and prices soar. TV product sales are at a complete disadvantage and the demand in 1Q22 dropped by 15~20%.
TrendForce further points out, originally Chinese brands banked on low 2Q22 panel prices and not being required to shoulder expensive shipping costs in the domestic market, expecting that the 618 anniversary promotional period would inject fresh enthusiasm into the market and boost annual shipments. However, now that China’s TV sales are disrupted by the pandemic, any hope riding on TV brands’ only large-scale promotional event in the first half of the year may have been dashed. In addition, Q3 was when brands stocked up in previous years for Black Friday and Christmas season promotions in Europe and the United States. However, this year’s FIFA World Cup was postponed to November, resulting in overlapping promotional schedules, which may curb sales. Ocean freight remains expensive this year, with additional costs increasing with greater item size, which is not conducive to the rollout of branded manufacturers’ large-scale promotional activities in 2H22. Therefore, TrendForce estimates that this year’s TV shipments will drop further to 212 million units, for an annual growth of only 1%, and there exists additional potential for downward risk.
Demand in Europe and US misses estimates, international brands drop orders, and 2Q22 decline in TV panel prices expands further
The top two leading TV brands, Samsung and LG Electronics, are mainly sold in North America and Europe. Therefore, since TV sales in Europe and the United States declined by 20% in 1Q22, this had the greatest impact on these two leading brands. Samsung Electronics shipped 10.9 million TVs in 1Q22, down 3.1% QoQ while LG Electronics shipped 6.53 million TVs in 1Q22, down 11.8% QoQ and down 6.4% YoY. Affected by weak terminal demand, the two major brands revised their panel purchase orders in late March. Samsung’s purchasing volume in 1Q22 was revised down 7.5% and fell by 9.5% in 2Q22. LG Electronics primarily focused on reducing purchase orders in 2Q22 and purchasing volume decline is expected to exceed 20%.
TrendForce specifically states, major international manufacturers have recently revised their orders in succession. Although Chinese brands have yet to see a significant reduction in orders, if 618 promotions are disappointing, it cannot be ruled out panel procurements will begin to fall in mid-to-late Q2. Although branded manufacturers significantly revised TV panel orders downward in 2Q22, panel manufacturers have not seen a significant reduction in utilization rate, which will depress the price of panels below 55 inches (inclusive) in a sustained freefall while the prices of large size panels above 65 inches (inclusive) will continue to deteriorate.
Samsung Electronics delays launch of WOLEDs, styming 2022 OLED TV shipment performance
This year, the supply of OLED TV panels has benefited from LG Display’s expanded production capacity of 8.5-generation OLED TVs in Guangzhou. As supply increased, LG Display also improved product specifications and prices, but this led to Samsung Electronics delaying the verification and launch schedule of white OLED products. Not only has Samsung Electronics’ 2022 market share of OLED TVs shrunk from 15% at the beginning of the year to 6.4%, but global OLED TV shipments will be revised down to 7.79 million units this year, with an annual growth rate of 17%.
TV shipment performance in 2022 will return to a pre-pandemic cycle but the Russian-Ukrainian war has indirectly led to rising inflation. With consumer spending unchanged, expenditures on non-essentials are bound to feel the squeeze. Russia accounts for 82% of TV shipments in the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) region and Ukraine also maintains a 12% market share. As the war drags on, the region will bleed 1.5 to 2 million TV sets in the short term, and TV shipments may fall by more than 3 million sets in the medium term. Although demand in the CIS region is not positive, Southeast Asia and emerging markets were severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, deferring a portion of demand. Overall, TV shipments in 2022 will adjust downward to 215 million units, or 2.4% YoY and a decrease of 0.7% from the previous 2022 forecast.
According to TrendForce statistics, TV shipments in the CIS region account for 4% of the global total, of which 60% consists of 32-inch and 43-inch models. The two major TV brands, Samsung and LG, account for nearly 50% of the combined market in the CIS region. At present, due to factors such as geopolitics and economic sanctions, shipments to Russian factories for back-end TV assembly have been halted and Samsung has gone one step further by halting sales.
Samsung and LGE account for more than 50% of CIS region market share, hardest hit by the Russian-Ukrainian war
Russian demand for TV sets falls at 6-7 million units per year. Due to high tariffs, TV giants Samsung and LGE have been encouraged to set up TV assembly plants in Russia which, not only reduce tariff costs, but also enjoy the benefits of zero-tariff exports to Ukraine.
Samsung and LGE originally sent imports from South Korea to Russia in the form of CKD (Complete knock down) in order to assemble TV sets in local factories and enjoy duty-free benefits. However, the war has suspended all shipments to Russia.
It is worth mentioning, as damage has been dealt to the two Korean brands, Chinese brand Haier has chosen to accelerate its deployment in the Russian market. Haier is expected to successfully occupy third place in TV sales in the CIS region with a market share of 11% in 2022. In 2021 Haier’s shipments in the CIS region reached 800,000 units. In 2022, it has an opportunity to cannibalize lost market share from Korean brands with a shipment target of one million units. Judging from the TV production capacity of local factories, volume maxes out at 2 million units. Haier is forecast to become the biggest winner of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Soaring shipping costs portend possible further downgrade of 2022 TV shipments
Due to factors such as reduced shipments and inventory control, the two Korean brands have gradually adjusted their purchase volume of TV panels in the near term, relegating 32- and 43-inch TV panels, units that had an opportunity to increase in price in April 2022, to a downward price trend again. Due to falling demand for TVs and IT, concerns over panel overcapacity are overwhelming and some panel manufacturers have decided to begin gradual capacity adjustment in April 2022.
Of the challenges plaguing the TV market in 2022, in addition to the existing problem of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising global inflation also add variables to demand. In addition, cargo container shortages and port congestion increased shipping costs significantly in 2021, indirectly inflating the cost of TV sets with costs rising as TV sizes grow. Even though current panel pricing has dropped by 30% to 40% compared with its high point in 2021, no expected reduction in freight costs in 2022 will inevitably affect the scale of branded promotions and stocking during the peak season of overseas markets in 2H22. Therefore, there is still room for TV shipments in 2022 to be revised downward.
The shipment performance of TV brands in 1H21 benefited from COVID-19 economic relief funds in the U.S., driving a continuing boom in North American shipments, according to TrendForce’s investigations. At the same time, TV brands continued to replenish panel inventories, pushing up panel prices. As the pandemic slowed down in Europe and the United States in 2H21, life returned to normal and pandemic stimulus no longer applied, challenging demand levels. In addition, rising raw material and freight prices pushed up whole device cost, forcing TV brands to pass costs onto retail pricing. Even though TV brands staked their hopes on the two major annual yearend sales promotion events of Singles Day in China (the biggest shopping day of the year globally, online and IRL) and Black Friday, sales performance was poor due to high costs leading to a slump in end-user demand and eventually causing TV shipments to decline by 3.2% annually to 210 million units in 2021.
TrendForce further indicates that panel supply and overall production capacity will be ample in 2022, dispelling severe TV panel price fluctuations while ushering in steady and moderate fluctuations as a replacement. After a sharp revision in TV panel prices in the 2H21, this year’s panel pricing is more advantageous to the planning of TV brands. In addition, the severe impact of the pandemic in Southeast Asia and emerging markets and high panel prices last year caused TV brands to reduce the scale of small-sized 23.6-inch, 32-inch, and 43-inch products, forcing a deferral of demand. In 2022, the pricing of small-sized panels will be close to panel manufacturers’ cash cost which will help TV brands recapture a larger proportion of small-sized panel shipments. The proportion of shipments below 39-inch will remain at 25%, medium-sized 40~59-inch panels will remain at 55%, and large-sized panels above 60-inch will remain the focus of international brands with market share expected to rise to 20%. Benefiting from the deferral of small-sized panel demand, TV shipments in 2022 will grow by 3.4% to 217 million units.
OLED TV growth to slow down in 2022, annual growth rate to settle at 27%
In 2021, OLED TVs benefited from soaring LCD prices in the previous two years. This was also the case with 55-inch 4K O/C products. The price difference between the two has narrowed from a multiple of 4.7 in early 2020 to 1.8 in mid-2021, thereby incentivizing more TV brands to switch to producing OLED TVs when LCD panel supply is limited and driving OLED TV shipments to 6.7 million units in 2021, or 70% growth YoY. Although Samsung Electronics intends to join the white OLED camp and simultaneously launch QD OLED TVs this year, the continuing falling pricing of LCD panels and the price of OLED TV panels (subject to LG Display’s strategy of increasing pricing as opposed to dropping them) may disrupt Samsung Electronics’ rollout of OLED TVs. If Samsung Electronics fails to launch spring OLED TV models, its original shipment target of 1.5 million units will inevitably be affected. However, whether it launches OLED TV models in spring or summer, Samsung Electronics will take advantage of its brand and channel advantages irrespective of other considerations to take the OLED TV market by storm and aim for a market share of 15%.
Annual growth rate of Mini LED TVs doubled, shipments push towards 4.5 million units
TCL has opened up new horizons for TV products after releasing its first Mini LED TV in 2020. In 2021, Samsung Electronics launched a series of 50-85-inch mid/high-end 4K and flagship 55-85-inch 8K Mini LED models, with shipments exceeding one million units in the first year, reaching 1.5 million units, and boosting overall Mini LED TV shipments in 2021 to 2.1 million units. In addition to Samsung Electronics and TCL continuing to utilize Mini LED in 2022, more TV brands will also join the fray. Overall Mini LED TV shipments will race towards 4.5 million units. SONY showed its 8K 85-inch and 75-inch TVs for the first time at CES at the beginning of the year. Sony’s flagship 4K 85-inch, 75-inch, and 65-inch models were the most notable at CES and Sony will join Samsung and LG Electronics as another international brand marketing OLED and Mini LED TVs, intensifying competition in the high-end TV market.
Quarterly TV shipment for 3Q21 reached 52.51 million units, representing an 8.3% QoQ increase but a 14.7% YoY decrease, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Demand for TVs was constrained during the quarter by the increase in various country’s vaccination rates as well as the rising retail prices of TV sets, resulting in a YoY shipment decline despite the arrival of the peak season. It should be noted that prices of TV panels began to plummet in August, and this price drop enabled Chinese TV brands to both expand sales during the Singles’ Day (November 11) shopping festival and in turn make up for deficits in their yearly sales targets. Global brands, on the other hand, will be unable to capitalize on the price drop of TV panels by reflecting this cost-savings on their TV sets’ retail prices until 1Q22 due to factors such as production, transportation, and inventory adjustments. These brands are therefore having a difficult time increasing their TV shipment for 4Q21. Quarterly TV shipment for 4Q21 is expected to reach 59.13 million units, representing a 12.6% QoQ increase but an 10.3% YoY decrease. TV shipment for 2H21 will therefore likely be among the lowest compared to shipment volumes for second halves of previous years historically.
TrendForce further indicates that TV manufacturers’ shipment performances have been weakening this year as the market approaches the year’s end. Stimulus checks issued in the US resulted in persistently high TV shipment in North America in 1H21, with brands maintaining their procurement of TV panels, thereby driving up the prices of TV panels as a result. As the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually brought under control, and everyday life returns to normalcy in Europe and North America in 2H21, the pandemic-generated upswing in TV sales subsequently lost momentum. Furthermore, while prices of raw materials and transportation/logistics services remained sky-high, manufacturing costs of whole TV sets also underwent a sharp climb and were then transferred to consumers. Taken together, these factors quickly wiped out market demand for TVs. TrendForce therefore expects annual TV shipment for 2021 to reach 210 million units, a 3.2% YoY decline.
With a forecasted annual shipment of 6.8 million units for 2021, OLED TVs have become favored by various brands amidst rising manufacturing costs of TV sets
TV brands face various manufacturing-related challenges this year. Not only have panel costs, which account for the largest share of TV sets’ manufacturing costs, undergone an increase, but port congestions have also led to rising shipping costs and an extended lead time before TV sets can be delivered for retail sale. In addition to an uneven availability of various components, these aforementioned obstacles all exacerbate the risks involved with TV brands’ shipment. In a bid to maximize profits, however, brands have been making a concentrated effort to ensure that the production of OLED TVs remained free from disruptions in an effort to maximize profits.
As brands shift the focus of their sales efforts to OLED TVs, OLED TV shipment for 2021 is expected to reach 6.8 million units, a 72.8% YoY increase. This growth can primarily be attributed to an increase in OLED TV supply due to the expanded production capacity of LGD’s production line in Guangzhou, as well as the narrowing difference between LCD panel prices and OLED panel prices due to the sharp rise in the former in 1H21. In particular, LGE is set to take leadership position with an over 60% market share and a 91% YoY growth in its OLED TV shipment. Trailing behind in second place is Sony, which has been sourcing OLED panels from LGD. The Japanese company is expected to register a 53% YoY increase in shipment and possess a 20% market share. Panasonic, on the other hand, comfortably took third place with a 7% market share. Notably, Xiaomi and Sharp are the two dark horses with regards to OLED TV shipment this year with explosive YoY growths of 900% and 140%, respectively.
Major brands will concentrate on the high-end and large-sized segments, while smaller brands will continue to steadily develop mainstream products
While demand in the TV market recovers as the pandemic runs its course, TrendForce expects 45% and 55% of the total annual TV shipment for 2022 to take place in 1H22 and 2H22, respectively. TV shipment for 2022 will likely reach 217 million units, a 3.3% YoY increase, as brands are able to aggressively ramp up their TV shipments thanks to not only an undisrupted supply of panels, but also gradually stabilizing prices. For major brands, their focus will be on medium-sized and large-sized products and on products with substantial added values. Hence, the market share of large-sized TVs (including 65-inch and above models) will for the first time ever surpass 20%, with medium-sized (40-inch to 59-inch models) TVs remaining at a 55% market share. Although major brands are gradually exiting the small-sized segment, and smaller brands will have an easier time expanding their presence in emerging markets owing to gradually stabilizing prices, small-sized (39-inch and below models) TVs will see their market share drop by 1.8% next year to 25%. In any case, the primary target markets for major brands and smaller brands will not overlap next year.
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As TV demand increased in North America in 1H21 following the distribution of stimulus packages, TV brands continued to replenish their component inventories during this time, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Notably, brands adopted a rolling schedule for their TV shipment because their manufacturing operations for TV sets were disrupted by a shortage of panels in 2Q21. TV shipment for 1H21 reached 98.45 million units, a 10% YoY increase.
Although supply issues related TV components have become gradually alleviated in 3Q21, TrendForce believes that retail prices of TV sets in 2H21 are unlikely to reach the rock bottom levels previously seen in 1H21 because the massive price hike of TV panels in 1H21 had led to a surge in TV manufacturing costs. In addition, as the market anticipates the possibility of an overall downturn in demand despite the arrival of the traditional peak season, TrendForce has once again revised its forecast of annual TV shipment for 2021 down to 215 million units, a 0.9% YoY decrease.
Chinese and Korean TV brands were major contributors to the growth of TV shipment for 1H21 while shipment of ultra large-sized TVs remained robust
TrendForce’s findings show that, although TV shipment for 1H21 fell short of prior forecasts by 5.8%, shipment from the two largest brands SEC (Samsung Electronics Co) and LGE (LG Electronics) comprised more than 20% of total large-sized TV shipment for the first time, thereby propelling their TV shipments for 1H21 above 20.7 million units for SEC and 14.01 million units for LGE. In particular, SEC’s large-sized (65-inch and above) TV shipment underwent a staggering 25% YoY increase for 1H21. Hence, the two brands’ strategy to eschew profit loss from the surge in panel prices by upgrading their product specs and increasing the shipment of larger-sized products proved to be relatively successful.
Despite nonstop issues with the supply of components required for TV set manufacturing in 1H21, TCL and Hisense were able to lower the manufacturing costs of their TV sets by increasing their shipments and adjusting their product mixes. For 1H21, TCL and Hisense increased their TV shipments by 11.5% and 9.5% YoY to 11.05 million units and 8.94 million units, respectively, with both companies setting records in terms of shipment volumes. In particular, 55-inch (and above) TVs accounted for 36.5% and 40.2%, of the 1H21 TV shipment from TCL and Hisense, respectively, meaning they shipped more large-sized TVs in 2021 than in any previous year. Xiaomi, the only brand among the top five to record a YoY drop in its TV shipment, saw its shipment reach 5.52 million units, a 6.6% YoY decline, despite occupying a larger share of TV shipment in China compared to TCL or Hisense. While Xiaomi struggled with rising manufacturing costs due to the persistent price hike of TV panels, Xiaomi’s decline can primarily be attributed to the fact that it failed to attract consumers despite multiple promotional price cuts in 1H21.
Persistently high prices of TV panels as well as lengthened shipping times in Europe and North America will likely hinder TV sales in 2H21 despite the arrival of the traditional peak season
Issues with TV panel supply are expected to gradually become resolved in 2H21. However, TV brands still need to address ongoing challenges with high panel costs as well as lowered TV demand in Europe and the US now that pandemic-related restrictions are being lifted. From June 2020 to July 2021, prices of 32-inch panels rose by 167%, though retail prices of 32-inch TV sets rose by a mere 30-35%. Similarly, prices of 55-inch panels rose by 120% while retail prices of 55-inch entry-level and mid-range TV sets rose by only 20-25%, with high-end TVs even experiencing a price drop. In other words, promotional price cuts taking place during peak season sales this year are unlikely to be remarkable and result in noticeable sales performances.
Although third quarters have traditionally marked the start of the peak sales season and hence a period of component procurement for TV brands, retail availability of end-products, such as TV sets, was delayed by three to four weeks this year due to port congestions taking place across the globe, which indirectly led to a decline in TV brands’ procurement activities for Europe and North America. Peak season sales, in turn, will likely be relatively muted this year in view of an increase in TV manufacturing costs and lengthened shipping times. Therefore, TrendForce expects TV shipment for 2H21 to reach 117 million units, an 8.5% YoY decrease.
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms. Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at firstname.lastname@example.org