iPhone


2021-09-14

In View of the Upcoming Apple Event, TrendForce Presents Its Latest Estimates on Smartphone Production and Shipments of Other End Devices for 2021

Apple is set to unveil the successors to its current device lineups at this year’s fall product launch on September 14. Please see below for some of TrendForce‘s latest data pertaining to the global consumer electronics market:

  1. Although the tight supply of certain components due to complications resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic remains Apple’s primary production-related challenge, iPhone production will unlikely be drastically affected. Total iPhone production for 2021 is expected to reach 229.5 million units, a 15.6% YoY increase, with the upcoming iPhone 13 models accounting for about 37%-39% of Apple’s annual iPhone production. In addition, iPhones are also expected to account for about 77% of total annual production of 5G smartphones in 2021, making them the market leader in this segment and representing a drastic increase from 39% in 2020.
  2. Regarding technical specifications, the Pro model of iPhone 13 is expected to include 1TB storage capacity as an optional upgrade. Other improvements over previous models include the adoption of A15 processors manufactured with TSMC’s 5nm+ process technology. All four iPhone 13 models will feature flexible AMOLED + On-cell designs for their display panels, while the Pro series will also feature a 120Hz refresh rate as well as LTPO technology for reduced power consumption. Furthermore, all four models’ primary cameras will be equipped with sensor shift image stabilization. The Pro model, in particular, will have its ultra-wide camera upgraded to a 6P lens, with the addition of autofocus capability as well. Much like the iPhone 12, LiDAR functionality is available only for the Pro model of the iPhone 13 lineup.
  3. In view of the lackluster sales performances of the iPhone 12 mini, which reached EOL ahead of time, the iPhone 13 mini is expected to account for less than 10% of total iPhone 13 production, since Apple will focus its sales efforts on the other three models. TrendForce indicates that the global economy, markets, and personal incomes are all still experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has also led to price hikes for electronic components and transportation services, thereby compounding Apple’s difficulties in setting retail prices for the new iPhone models. TrendForce expects Apple to continue the aggressive pricing strategy that it adopted for last year’s models in order to attract smartphone buyers, raise its revenue from services via increased handset sales, and make up for the aggressive prices via increased service revenue.

(Cover image source: Apple official website

2021-08-13

iPhone Shipment Resumes Its Upward Trajectory in 3Q21 with 30% YoY Increase

The iPhone 13 series, which is about to be formally announced by Apple, has already had its exterior design speculated on by various media outlets and fans alike. TrendForce’s latest investigations indicate that some of the notable hardware upgrades of the iPhone 13 pertain to the SoC (manufactured at the 5nm+ node, which enables improved performance and decreased power consumption), display, and camera. In addition, iPhone handsets featuring support for 5G mmWave will be available for sale in more countries after the release of iPhone 13.

The iPhone 13 will see a shift in its charging circuit board from the previous rigid-flex PCB design to a new design featuring SiP combined with flexible PCB. The space-saving feature of this new design will also likely result in increased battery capacity. As for retail prices, the iPhone 13 series is expected to remain similar to the iPhone 12 series assuming Apple is able to effectively control manufacturing costs, since the latest models do not come with significant hardware upgrades. As a result of this aggressive pricing scheme, iPhone shipment will likely maintain its growth trajectory for two consecutive years.

Huawei’s plight led to Apple’s rising market share in the Greater China region

Owing to heavy competition from Chinese brands, sales in the Greater China region accounted for a decreasing share of Apple’s iPhone revenue, from 19.44% in 2017 down to merely 16.33% in 2020. Nevertheless, this downtrend has been gradually reversing since 4Q20, primarily because of increased sanctions against Huawei.As Huawei was cut off from its chip supply in 4Q20, shipment of Huawei smartphones underwent a massive decline accordingly, in turn leaving vacancies in the flagship smartphone market in China. At the same time, while Apple released its new iPhone 12 models, flagship smartphone buyers in China began purchasing iPhones instead. Thanks to this shift, sales in the Greater China region began accounting for a growing share of Apple’s iPhone revenue, from 14.8% up to 19.13% in 4Q20. Since 4Q20, this figure has remained above 18% for three consecutive quarters.

Prior to being sanctioned by the US government, Huawei had enjoyed the highest market share in the high-end smartphone segment in China. After the sanctions were put into place, this segment then became highly sought after by other smartphone brands. However, because other Chinese brands had not previously placed significant emphasis on the high-end market, the iPhone was able to seize most of the market share in the high-end segment left in Huawei’s wake. Furthermore, although other Chinese smartphone brands have started developing their respective flagship models, it takes considerable time to build up their brand images in this segment and attract customers. TrendForce therefore believes that the iPhone will continue to dominate the high-end smartphone market in China for the next two to three years.

iPhones are expected to account for 16.7% of global smartphone shipment in 2021

An overview of iPhone shipments for the past few years shows that iPhone shipment went into a nosedive starting in 4Q18 because the iPhone XS/XR series featured limited improvements yet a significant price hike over its iPhone 8/X predecessor. Alarmed by this decline, Apple immediately revamped its sales strategy for the next-gen iPhone 11, which not only underwent a total overhaul in terms of specs but also experienced a price cut of US$50 for the entry-level model (the Pro model retained its previous-gen equivalent’s price). Apple subsequently released the brand-new iPhone SE in 2020, thereby reversing the downward trajectory of iPhone shipment as a result.

New iPhones saw a deferred released schedule in 2020 owing to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a 14% YoY decrease in iPhone shipment for 3Q20. However, as the new iPhone 12 models equipped with across-the-board hardware upgrades, including 5G functionality, were released in 4Q20, iPhone shipment saw a massive rebound during the quarter and reached a 12% YoY increase in 4Q20 and a further increase of 42% YoY in 1Q21.

Looking ahead to the shipment volumes of the new iPhone models for 2H21, TrendForce expects Apple to maintain its aggressive pricing strategy in order to boost shipment. In addition, as the iPhone 13 series will once again return to a September release, total iPhone shipment is expected to undergo a 30% YoY increase in 3Q21, but a 5% YoY decrease in 4Q21. As such, iPhone sales for 2H21 will likely surpass 2H20 figures. For 2021, iPhones are expected to account for 16.7% of all smartphone shipment, which is a step-up compared to last year.

(Cover image source: Pexels)

2021-06-21

iPhone Production for 2021 Projected to Reach 223 Million Units Due to Increased Vaccinations and Impending Easing of Lockdowns in the US/Europe, Says TrendForce

This year, the US and Europe, which are Apple’s main markets for iPhone devices, are seeing an easing of the pandemic and expecting an economic recovery. Furthermore, Apple is expected to benefit from Huawei’s abandonment of some market share for high-end smartphones, and the sales of the new iPhone devices in 2H21 will likely be boosted thanks to this development. On the whole, the outlook on Apple’s performance in the smartphone market for the whole year is positive, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Although the ongoing capacity crunch in the foundry industry will have a constraining effect on Apple in terms of ramping up its iPhone production and growing its market share in the future, TrendForce is still maintaining a cautiously optimistic view and forecasts that the annual total iPhone smartphone production for 2021 will grow by around 12.3% YoY to 223 million units, with additional room for a slight growth going forward.

Apple will prioritize the optimization of existing functions with the iPhone 12s series, while retail prices are expected to remain on par with last year’s release of iPhone 12 models

Apple plans to unveil the next generation of iPhones, tentatively called the iPhone 12s series (official name has yet to be revealed), in September 2021, and the smartphone market has placed the spotlight on the new handsets’ physical appearances as well as retail prices. Regarding the general outward appearance of the upcoming iPhone devices, the notch on top of the screen will shrink due to the decreased size of their sensor housings. Apart from this, other upgrades will mostly relate to the optimization of existing functions and features. All in all, the degree of innovation is not particularly significant in terms of appearance, and the four new models can be regarded as an extension to the iPhone 12 series. Because of this, TrendForce also believes that Apple will continue the proactive pricing strategy that it adopted in 2020 so as to maintain its market share for high-end smartphones. Even though prices of some key components have risen due to tightening supply, Apple is taking into account of the growth in the revenue of peripheral services in relation to the growth of iPhone sales. This means that the starting price of the upcoming iPhone series will likely be relatively on par with the starting price of the iPhone 12 series.

For the latest iPhone models, Apple has made certain upgrades to the handsets. TrendForce here summarizes the key components of the latest iPhone models, including the processor, display, memory, and camera. The iPhone 12s series will feature the A15 processors manufactured at TSMC’s 5nm+ node. Regarding the display, the new models will be equipped with flexible AMOLED panels with On-cell touchscreen technology; the two Pro models will also feature a 120Hz refresh rate. Judging by the iPhone 12s series’ starting prices as well as the differences among various models’ retail prices, TrendForce expects the new handsets’ memory capacities to remain the same as their iPhone 12 counterparts. On the camera front, Apple has upgraded all iPhone 12s handsets’ main cameras to include sensor-shift image stabilization technologies. For the Pro models, not only are their ultra-wide cameras now equipped with 6P lens (which is an upgrade over the previous generation), but they are also capable of autofocus functions. Notably, it should be pointed out that LiDAR scanners are available in the Pro models only.

On the whole, TrendForce expects the latest iPhone devices to account for about 39% of Apple’s total annual production volume for 2021. As all iPhone 12s handsets contain 5G modems, the share of 5G models in the overall iPhone production is projected to expand massively from 39% in 2020 to 75% in 2021. Furthermore, Apple is expected to focus on driving sales of the three non-mini models in the iPhone 12s series in view of the fact that the iPhone 12 mini (which reached End-of-Life ahead of time in 2Q21) suffered disappointing sales performances compared to other models in the iPhone 12 family.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

2021-03-09

Unaffected by Seasonal Headwinds, Global Smartphone Production Declines by Mere 6% in 1Q21, as Total Yearly Production Likely to Reach 1.36 Billion Units, Says TrendForce

Owing to high sales of the iPhone 12 series as well as an aggressive device production strategy by Chinese smartphone brands in response to sanctions on Huawei, which has lost considerable market share as a result, global smartphone production for 1Q21 is likely to reach 342 million units, a YoY increase of 25% and a QoQ decline of just 6%, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Historically, smartphone production tends to experience a QoQ drop of around 20% for the first quarter as demand collapses from the peak-season level of the fourth quarter of the preceding year. However, the performance of the first quarter of this year is expected to defy seasonality.

Smartphone production for 4Q20 is estimated at 364 million units, while Apple ranked first in terms of production volume

Even though the share of high-end models in global smartphone sales shrank in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Apple was able to push through the headwinds and capture market share by introducing 5G models and adopting an aggressive pricing strategy. Apple produced 77.6 million units of iPhones in 4Q20, an 85% increase QoQ, thereby overtaking Samsung and ranking first amongst all smartphone brands. It should also be pointed out that iPhone 12 devices accounted for about 90% of the iPhone production in 4Q20. For 1Q21, sales of iPhone 12 devices remain strong, and total iPhone production is expected to reach 54 million units, with iPhone 12 models again accounting for about 80% of this figure. Looking further ahead, Apple plans to launch four new flagship iPhone devices in 2H21 and is likely to adhere to its aggressive pricing strategy. Regarding hardware advances, Apple will upgrade its mobile SoC to the A15 bionic SoC. Other than that, it will optimize various existing functions of the iPhone device. On the whole, the four upcoming flagship models can be regarded as extensions to the iPhone 12 series.

Samsung posted a QoQ decline of 14% in its smartphone production to 67 million units for 4Q20, thereby taking second place in the quarterly ranking. Its performance was affected by the competition from the new iPhone devices and the end of stock-up activities that were related to the year-end holiday season in North America and Europe. Moving to 1Q21, Samsung has released the new lineup of its flagship Galaxy S21 series in advance so as to maintain its market share in the high-end segment. At the same time, Samsung has adopted promotional pricing to boost the sales of its latest devices. Samsung’s quarterly smartphone production volume will likely reach around 62 million units for 1Q21. For the whole 2021, TrendForce expects Samsung to top the annual ranking of brands by production. Nevertheless, retaining the leadership position will be increasingly challenging for Samsung as it has been losing market share to several Chinese brands that have risen rapidly over these past few years. Regarding product strategy, Samsung will likely combine the Galaxy Fold series, equipped with foldable displays, with the Galaxy Note series, which offer large-sized displays, into the same flagship lineup. The main focus of Samsung’s sales efforts will still be on the Galaxy A series that encompasses models across the high-end, mid-range, and low-end segments of the price spectrum. To effectively compete against Chinese brands that boast better price-performance ratio for their devices, Samsung will maintain high specifications and a price advantage for Galaxy A devices.

OPPO (including OPPO, OnePlus, Realme), Xiaomi, and Vivo produced 50 million, 47 million, and 31.5 million units of smartphones respectively in 4Q20, which placed them at third, fourth, and sixth places. Looking ahead to 1Q21, the three aforementioned smartphone brands are expected to maintain an aggressive production target and actively expand in both the overseas and domestic markets. Nonetheless, potential growths in their actual production volume will be limited by the current shortage of production capacities across the foundry industry. In terms of product strategies, the three Chinese brands will remain aggressive in their R&D activities for high-end models as they seek to take over Huawei’s previous position in this segment. In particular, Xiaomi and OPPO have been seizing market shares with the highly cost-effective Redmi and Realme series, respectively. Notably, Xiaomi is expected to achieve a better performance in terms of market share for the whole year due to its earlier expansion in the overseas markets.

In response to heightened China-U.S. tensions, Huawei maintained a high inventory of components, which allowed it to effectively mitigate the impact of sanctions from the Department of Commerce. As such, Huawei recorded a quarterly production volume of 34.5 million units in 4Q20, a 21% decrease QoQ. This performance was sufficient to land Huawei in the fifth place in the production ranking for the quarter. Going forward, if suppliers of relevant smartphone components are unable to obtain approval to ship to Huawei by the end of 1Q21, then Huawei is expected to experience a noticeable cutoff of material supplies by the end of 2Q21. Furthermore, after being officially sold off by its parent company Huawei in early 2021, Honor is similarly facing the issue of foundry capacity shortage, which is projected to constrain the production volume of new Honor for the entirety of 2021.

2021 Ranking of smartphone brands by market share remains under scrutiny as LG suspends R&D of new products

LG has been considering either closing down or selling off its smartphone business since early 2021 while also suspending the R&D of new models. This has introduced additional uncertainties into the smartphone market following Huawei’s diminished presence. Although LG was relentless in innovating and developing high-end smartphones in the past, its sales performances lagged behind more competitive offerings from Samsung and Apple in the high-end segment. In the entry-level and mid-range segments, LG similarly fell short of Chinese brands, whose products enjoyed a pricing advantage. As a result, LG’s smartphone market share underwent gradual YoY declines since 2016, finally coming to ninth place in the global smartphone production ranking in 2020. Going forward, LG will concentrate its sales efforts in the Americas, while its market share is expected to fall to other brands, including Samsung, Xiaomi, and even certain telecom companies’ in-house brands.

For the rest of 2021, as the pandemic gradually slows down, the smartphone industry, which provides an essential daily necessity for the public, is likely to make a recovery as well. Given the industry’s cyclical replacement demand as well as demand from emerging regions, TrendForce projects the total smartphone production volume for 2021 to reach 1.36 billion units, a 9% increase YoY. It should be pointed out that the recent shortage in foundry capacities has led to a very limited supply of smartphone components, such as AP and TDDI. This means most smartphone brands have to make do with the materials they are able to obtain, even if such materials constitute a bottleneck in the manufacturing process. As a result, the boundaries between what would otherwise be off seasons and peak seasons will be relatively ambiguous this year, resulting in a smaller magnitude of QoQ growths.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms. Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforce.com

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