As a consequence of rising power battery raw material prices, a number of global new energy vehicle (NEV) brands including Tesla, BYD, NIO, Li Auto, and Volkswagen, have successively raised the sales prices of electric vehicles (EV) in 1Q22. TrendForce believes that power batteries are the core component that account for the greatest portion of an EV’s overall cost and reducing the cost of power batteries will be an important strategy for companies to remain competitive in the future. As technology continues to innovate, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to account for more than 60% of installed capacity in the global power battery market by 2024.
TrendForce indicates, from the perspective of the world’s largest EV market, China, the power battery market reversed in 2021 and lithium iron phosphate batteries officially surpassed ternary batteries with 52% of installed capacity. Lithium iron phosphate installed capacity continued to grow in 1Q22, rising to 58%, and demonstrating a growth rate far beyond that of ternary batteries. However, from the perspective of the global EV market, thanks to the increase in the penetration rate of NEVs in Europe and the United States, ternary batteries still accounted for a market share of more than 60% in 2021, far exceeding that of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which captured a market share of approximately 32~ 36%.
Although the current gap between these two materials remains substantial, according to production capacity planning of global new energy battery cathode material manufacturers in the past two years, the scale and speed of lithium iron phosphate materials expansion will far exceed that of ternary materials. According to TrendForce investigations, planned expansion projects announced by global cathode material manufacturers are currently concentrated in China and South Korea, with a nominal total planned production capacity of over 11 million tons, of which planned production capacity of lithium iron phosphate cathodes accounts for approximately 64%. However, since planned production capacity exceeds market demand, there will be a certain shortfall between the industry’s total planned production capacity and actual future production capacity. It remains to be seen to what level actual effective production capacity can rise in the future.
It is worth noting, as the price of core battery raw materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel has moved up clearly since 2H21 and the global power battery supply chain is plagued by uncertainty including the Russian-Ukrainian war and the global pandemic, there will be a short-term disparity between the growth rate of supply and demand and companies will focus more on reducing the cost of battery materials and supply chain security, two major issues related to future competitiveness. As a result of this trend, TrendForce expects the cost-effective advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries to become more prominent and this type of battery has an opportunity to become the mainstream of the terminal market in the next 2-3 years. The global installed capacity ratio of lithium iron phosphate batteries to ternary batteries will also move from 3:7 to 6:4 in 2024
In 2021, total sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles) reached 6.473 million units, with annual growth rate reaching 122%, the highest growth rate since the development of vehicle electrification, according to TrendForce’s research. Battery electric vehicles (BEV) accounted for approximately 71.6% of total sales and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) accounted for approximately 28.1%, while the scale of fuel cell vehicles remained small.
Tesla ranked first among BEV brands with total global sales exceeding 930,000 vehicles and a 20.2% market share. SAIC-GM-Wuling ranked second, posting strong sales numbers for their low-priced mini electric vehicles in 2021. Other BEV brands such as Ora and Chery have also greatly increased sales performance on the backs of mini-vehicle products. The significance of this segment in the NEV market is considerable. On the whole, a reinvigorated BEV market has birthed a number of new brands that have further fractured market share. The concentration of market share among the top ten BEV brands dropped from 64.4% in 2020 to 57% in 2022, indicating an escalation of market competition.
BYD ranked first in PHEV sales with 273,000 vehicles sold in 2021, accounting for 15% of the market. Both BYD and seventh ranked Li Auto posted multifold growth, suggesting China’s reduced PHEV subsidy policy exerted minimum impact on the market. In addition to a number of luxury European brands holding their spots on the sales ranking, TOYOTA moved swiftly into fifth place while Jeep, a part of the Stellantis group and known for its performance cars, ranked 10th with the lion’s share of sales coming from the United States and Europe.
From a regional perspective, NEV sales in China once again exceeded half of the global total in 2021 while NEVs accounted for 19.3% of China’s overall auto market. TrendForce states, in addition to fierce competition, the Chinese market also includes numerous new brands, accelerated mass production, joint venture brands adjusting strategies, and overseas deployment of domestic brands targeting Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
In addition, with the European Union strongly promoting electrification, the penetration rate of NEVs in several leading countries such as Germany and France is expected to reach 20~25% in 2022. In terms of the currently trailing US market, the Biden administration’s many policy incentives have focused the actions of brands and supply chains which include the introduction of ever-popular (in the U.S. market) battery electric pickups by a number of automakers. In addition, many new brands such as Rivian, Lucid Motors, Fisker, and Lordstown Motors have successively entered the mass production and assembly stage of vehicle manufacturing or plan to enter mass production in 2022, making the future of the U.S. electric vehicle market worth observing in terms of quantity and competition.
As the global trend of energy conservation and carbon reduction remains unchanged and automakers shift greater proportions of their product lines to electric vehicles, the total number of NEVs is forecast to exceed 10 million in 2022. However, the international situation is turbulent, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused the price of crude oil to rise. In addition, Ukraine supplies neon gas for the semiconductor process and Russia is a producer of nickel ore. Nickel is a key material for electric vehicle batteries. Once the war heats up, the automotive industry will bear the brunt of rising costs and unstable supply chains, which are variables for the development of NEVs in 2022.
According to TrendForce’s estimates, the global automotive market will sell 88.6 million vehicles in 2022, growing 10.1% YoY. This estimate includes deferred demand due to automakers’ production cuts in 2021. However, numerous uncertainties still bedevil the overall automobile market in terms of production while supply chain issues and the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to continue impeding automobile sales. In addition to supply chain issues, global inflation caused by rising energy and upstream raw material costs has also become a hidden economic burden in various countries. When the overall cost of living increases, the automotive market will experience the ensuing negative impact.
NEVs expected to exceed 8 million units in 2022 as competition intensifies
The penetration of electric vehicles into the automotive market is accelerating. The estimated combined sales of BEV and PHEV in 2022 will be in excess of 8 million units. Regulations also remain an important driving force for the market. There is fierce competition among automakers and automakers of disparate types and backgrounds have distinct future development priorities. However, accelerating capacity expansion is the primary developmental focus for all types of automakers. The years 2022-2024 will be the target for many emerging automakers to achieve mass production. This will further promote heightened competition in the electric vehicle market including in price, performance, technical specifications, etc.
In addition, after the rapid growth in sales of electric vehicles, TrendForce has articulated that retired batteries have become another business opportunity. Both China and Europe have new regulations pending which place requirements on electric vehicle battery performance, recycled materials, utilization rate of recycled materials, battery second-life (echelon utilization), disposal, etc. In addition, specific battery information and traceability is also commonly promoted as part of these regulations, which entail additional time pressure on automotive companies and the supply chain due to various management measures required in the battery life cycle. A multitude of demands spur car manufacturers and supply chains to seek external partnerships and increased investment to meet regulatory requirements.
With the explosion of new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales, the installed capacity of power batteries has also seen rapid growth, in turn promoting the rising demand for battery materials, according to TrendForce’s investigations. Among battery materials, cathode materials are most in demand for power batteries and their shipments have benefited from the rapid growth of the NEV market. It is estimated that the global demand for power battery cathode materials in 2021 will reach 600,000 tons and this number is expected to exceed 2.15 million tons by 2025.
As the largest downstream application market for lithium batteries, electric vehicles account for more than 60% of total lithium battery consumption. With estimated total consumption of lithium batteries for electric vehicles worldwide reaching 310GWh this year, corresponding demand for cathode materials will reach approximately 604,000 tons.
According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s NEV sales reached 2.99 million vehicles between January and November of this year, accounting for approximately 50% of total global sales of NEVs, and becoming the key to boosting global demand for power battery installations. During this period (January to November), the installed capacity of power batteries in the Chinese market reached 128.3GWh, a YoY growth rate of 153.1%. The cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 64.8GWh, surpassing the 63.3GWh installed capacity of ternary batteries for the first time.
TrendForce believes, benefiting from strong market demand for electric vehicles, lithium battery material manufacturers (representative of cathode materials) have started a new round of large-scale production expansion this year and are expected to gradually release new production capacity in the next 2 to 3 years, relieving tight market demand. At present, the overall capacity utilization rate of China’s cathode material industry is not high. Taking lithium iron phosphate materials as an example, the capacity utilization rate of China’s lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in 2020 is approximately 44% and expected to rise to 56% this year. Whether or not future global market demand of more than 2 million tons can be met will depend on whether new production capacity of cathode materials can come online according to schedule and whether the supply of key raw material lithium carbonate is sufficient.
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email Ms. Grace Li from the Sales Department at email@example.com
Total global sales of NEVs (new energy vehicles) for the first three quarters of 2021 (January-September) reached 4.2 million units, with BEVs in particular accounting for 2.92 million units, a 153% YoY growth, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Total sales of PHEVs, on the other hand, reached 1.28 million units, a 135% YoY growth. Compared to the overall automotive market, whose growth has been constrained by the ongoing semiconductor shortage and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, sales of NEVs still remained relatively strong.
Regarding BEV sales, Tesla comfortably took the leadership position with a 21.5% market share. The automaker’s sales volume for the first three quarters of this year already surpassed its sales volume for 2020. Taking second place on the top 10 list, Wuling Hongguang was able to maintain its high volume of sales due to not only low retail prices, but also a gradual expansion of its target markets from tier-three and tier-four cities to tier-one and tier-two cities in China. This shift would seem to indicate a corresponding expansion of and shift in Wuling Hongguang’s customer base. BYD and Volkswagen took third and fourth places, respectively, with the latter aggressively consolidating its BEV offerings into the ID. Family this year. Vehicles in the ID. Family have accounted for nearly all of Volkswagen’s BEV sales since 3Q21. Despite the rapid growth of the BEV market, competition has been intensifying after traditional automakers began releasing their own BEV models at a faster pace while emerging automakers also began delivering vehicles.
It should be noted that, although the global semiconductor shortage has not damaged the NEV market to the same degree as it did the traditional ICE vehicle market, the NEV market is not entirely immune to the resultant supply-side issues. In addition, China’s power rationing and pandemic-generated transportation/logistics disruptions likewise affected automakers’ manufacturing operations to various degrees. Taken together, these aforementioned factors became some of the underlying causes responsible for the shifts in NEV automakers’ market shares.
Regarding PHEV sales, BYD put up a remarkable performance by leapfrogging to second place in the rankings, and this can primarily be attributed to the release of BYD’s DM-i vehicles, which feature a super hybrid technology aimed at reducing fuel consumption. Thanks to the DM-i vehicles, BYD’s PHEV sales began skyrocketing in 2Q21, and the automaker was able to overtake several European automakers with respect to total PHEV sales for the first nine months of 2021. Much like the BEV market, despite the growths in most automakers’ sales volumes, companies will find it increasingly difficult to raise their PHEV market share.
Looking ahead to the NEV market’s future, TrendForce believes that, as traditional global automakers gradually kick off mass production of vehicles based on the battery electric platform, more and more new BEV models will be released to market at an accelerated pace. Furthermore, the next one to three years will serve as the key timeframe for emerging automakers as well as new entrants that crossed from other industries to achieve mass production. Therefore, there remains much potential for changes to occur within the rankings of NEV automakers’ sales and market shares.
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insider.trendforce.com/